Well, it’s always nice to get off to a winning start, as Jimmy Graham found the end-zone on Thursday night (Friday morning in the UK) at odds of 5.50. I doubt you’ll get odds that big again for the rest of season for him. As for Anthony Miller, he was barely on the field, whilst Davante Adams didn’t really get a look in, in what was a defensive struggle. Now we move onto Sunday, and a full slate of games.
Game: Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Devonta Freeman
Best Odds: 2.20 with Several
Next Best: 2.10 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.10
Comments: “After spending last season on IR, Freeman returns to the Falcons starting line-up with no real competition for reps, with Tevin Coleman now playing for the 49ers. Given that Freeman has scored 37 times in 63 starts I’m more than happy to take odds over evens.”
Game: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: LeVeon Bell
Best Odds: 2.10 with Bet365
Next Best: 2.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.73
Comments: “Yes, Bell hasn’t played competitive football in nearly 2 years, but when he’s on the field he is one of the best dual-threat running-backs the NFL has ever seen. I know there’s talk of a snap count, but I really don’t see it. The Jets paid him 50 million to be the guy, and that starts this weekend against the Bills.”
Game: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Zay Jones
Best Odds: 4.75 with Unibet
Next Best: 4.50 with several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 4.00
Comments: “I think most people may be shocked when they know that despite Josh Allen’s struggles, Zay Jones caught 7 touchdowns last season, and with the additions of John Brown and Cole Beasley, that should allow the 3rd year receiver even more red-zone opportunities. Odds over 3/1 are very generous indeed.”
Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Leonard Fournette
Best Odds: 2.00 with Betfair
Next Best: 1.83 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.72
Comments: “All of the talk coming out of Jacksonville is that Fournette has had a great camp, and is in the best shape of his career, which could spell trouble for a Chiefs defence that allowed 5 yards a carry, and 19 rushing touchdowns last season.”
Game: Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Odell Beckham Jr
Best Odds: 2.00 with Several
Next Best: 1.90 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.80
Comments: “We all know that OBJ loves the big stage, and what better way to announce yourself to the Cleveland faithful than by scoring on your debut. Having scored 44 times in 59 career starts, you have to think that OBJ will be Baker Mayfields new favourite target when they get in and around the red-zone.”
Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Cam Newton
Best Odds: 3.25 with Unibet
Next Best: 3.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.80
Comments: “The ongoing shoulder injury might be a slight concern for the Panthers and Cam Newton, but they head into this season very much under the radar. Super Cam has rushed for 58 scores in 123 starts, so if you can get odds over 2/1 it offers significant value, not to mention the Rams allowed the most yards per carry last season.”
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Kick-Off: 21:05 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: T.Y. Hilton
Best Odds: 4.00 with Several
Next Best: 3.75 with Betfair
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3.75
Comments: “OK, Andrew Luck may have ridden off into the sunset, but don’t sleep on Jacoby Brissett. He’s now had a couple of seasons in Indianapolis to learn the offence, and I think he may just surprise a few people. As for Hilton, we all know he has the speed to get over the top of this Chargers defence.”
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Kick-Off: 21:05 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Eric Ebron
Best Odds: 4.50 with Unibet
Next Best: 4.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 4.00
Comments: “I don’t often back 2 players from the same team, but with Derwin James on IR that leaves a match-up nightmare for the Chargers as to who should cover Ebron. I don’t see him replicating his 2018 campaign, but odds of 4.50 are too big to pass up.”
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Kick-Off: 21:25 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: David Johnson
Best Odds: 2.10 with Several
Next Best: 2.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.90
Comments: “It will interesting to see just how Kliff Kingsurys ‘air raid’ offence translates to the NFL. One thing is certain, the Cardinals offence can’t be any worse than it was last season. As for Johnson it was very much a down season in 2018, although he still managed to find the end-zone 10 times in 16 starts.”
Game: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Kick-Off: 21:25 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Ezekiel Elliott
Best Odds: 1.73 with SpreadEx
Next Best: 1.67 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.50
Comments: “Did anyone doubt that Zeke wouldn’t get his money? Ok, maybe a little. But having signed his new contract on Monday he would have had a full week of practice heading into the Cowboys Week 1 match-up with the Giants. Yes his odds may be low, but having already scored 34 times in 3 seasons they still offer value.”
If I have any selections for the Monday Night Football games they will be posted later on today, or early tomorrow morning.
As per usual, stake 3% of your starting bankroll onto each selection.
For those of you who prefer a points system, start with an initial betting bank of 100 points, and stake 3 points per selection.
Touchdown Profit 