Well, what a great start to the season, with David Johnson finding the end-zone nice and early. Let’s hope that form continues this evening.
Game: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Adrian Peterson
Best Odds: 5.00 with Several
Next Best: 4.50 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 4.00
Comment: “Old father time may be catching up with AP, but he’s in a decent situation with former coach Darrell Bevell now the offensive coordinator in Detroit. I don’t believe Peterson will get a great deal of carries, but with Kerryon Johnson being a fairly ineffective goal-line back, I would expect Adrian Peterson to see some work inside the 5 yard line. Obviously, it’s hard judge just how things will play out in week 1, but given his career touchdown rate these odds offer great value.”
Game: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Jimmy Graham
Best Odds: 5.50 with Several
Next Best: 4.50 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 4.00
Comment: “Much like Adrian Peterson, Graham is in the twilight of his career and is far less of a threat over the middle. However, where he is still a threat in down in the red-zone, a massive target at 6’7” he will be a match-up nightmare for any of the Lions defensive backs, or linebackers. He’s just the sort of guy Mitch Trubisky needs. Bear in mind that the Lions gave up 33 passing touchdowns last season, which was 4th most in the NFL, and lost their best cover corner in Darius Slay.”
Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Jason Witten
Best Odds: 10.00 with Several
Next Best: 9.00 with Unibet
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 6.00
Comment: “Don’t worry, I’m not just selecting guys that are nearing retirement, but at 9/1 I can’t overlook this guy. It hard to say just how much he’ll be on the field, with Darren Waller the clear number 1, but if you look at what Foster Moreau did as TE2 for the Raiders last season scoring 5 times it would appear that he should get some work in two tight-end packages, which the Raiders like to use in and around the end-zone. ”
Game: Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Todd Gurley
Best Odds: 2.15 with Bet Victor
Next Best: 2.10 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.91
Comment: “Knee problems may have made Gurley expendable from the Rams, and he isn’t the explosive runner he once was, but just look at his career scoring record, 70 touchdowns in 72 starts makes odds over evens very appealing. He’ll be facing a Seahawks run defence that was very poor last season, allowing 4.9 yards a carry and 22 touchdowns, 3rd most in the NFL.”
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Kick-Off: 21:25 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Rob Gronkowski
Best Odds: 3.55 with Betfair Exchange
Next Best: 3.40 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.75
Comment: “Brady. Gronk. It’s like we’ve gone back in time. I’m not sure either guy will be able recapture their All-Pro form, but what we do know is just how in sync these guys can be in a very short space of time. Brady is going to know exactly where Gronk is heading on each and every route, and with Mike Evans listed as ‘doubtful’ it gives Brady a familiar red-zone threat.”
Both AJ Green and Terry McLaurin offer decent value, but both have new quarterbacks under centre, and face tough matchups in the secondary, so I’ll pass for this week. I do have a couple of selections for Monday Night Football, which will be sent out later on this evening, or potentially Monday morning.
As per usual, stake 3% of your starting bankroll onto each selection.
For those of you who prefer a points system, start with an initial betting bank of 100 points, and stake 3 points per selection.
Touchdown Profit 