We enter Week 3 having had a great start to season, with selections going 7-4 (Spread Bets are 4-2 with Totals at 3-2). However, Week 3 is usually around the time that bookies get more of handle on how each team is shaping up, their new offences and defences philosophies, how free-agency and rookies are impacting teams, etc. Not to mention the lack of fan attendance at most stadiums. So, I approach this week with caution.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons – Bears +4 @ 1.91 with Will Hill
I don’t think many people had the Bears pegged to be 2-0, yes, they’ve had a pretty easy start to the season, but you still have to beat the team that’s in front of you. Mitchell Trubisky has actually played pretty well, whether that be a comfort with the offence, or the fact that Nick Foles is sat on the bench, is doesn’t really matter, he’s doing enough to keep the Bears in games. As for the Falcons, that was an absolute horror show in the 2nd half against the Cowboys, who had no right in winning that game. Of course there is the distinct possibility that the Falcons bounce back in a big way after the embarrassment of Sunday night, but they face a far tougher prospect on offence this week. Matt Ryan has had a sensational start to the season, but throwing it 50 times against the Bears is not a wise decision given the guys that Chicago can bring off the edge. The Falcons defence has looked like the one from the 1st half of last season, giving up huge yardage in bunches, and with second year back David Montgomery looking more like focal point of the offence, I can see the Bears sneaking out of Georgia with another ‘W’.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens – Chiefs +3.5 @ 1.91 with Several
Nobody said it was ever going to be easy for the Chiefs to repeat, and they certainly rang true last Sunday, as the Chargers gave them everything they could handle. That being said, Patrick Mahomes still found a way to make the big plays when it mattered, and you know he’s going to love the Monday Night Football spotlight. The Ravens comfortably handled the Houston Texans (much to my annoyance) but upon second viewing, I feel that the Texans actually aided the Ravens. I mean going for it on your own 35 yard line, in the 1st quarter, what is Bill O’Brien thinking…… Although, on second thoughts I don’t think anyone who trades away DeAndre Hopkins can be in their right mind. It kind of feels like this should have been the AFC Championship game from a year ago, but the Titans spoiled that party. These teams going into Monday night are pretty much 50/50, so I’m more than happy to see the Chiefs get a field goal (and a half) head start, especially taking into account that the Chiefs have only lost 4 of their last 16 away games, with 3 of those losses by 3 points or less. Look for Travis Kelce to be the difference maker this week, the Ravens no longer have anyone on that roster that can match his size, strength, and speed (for a tight-end).
Totals
Lions at Cardinals – Under 55 points
Cowboys at Seahawks – Under 56.5 points
Chiefs at Ravens – Under 54 points
There is significant value in the Lions at +6, and the Packers at +3/3.5, but I can’t trust either side on the road, especially given the injuries that are mounting up on both rosters.
All selections are advised at 1 point each, with a 100 point bankroll.
Touchdown Profit 