Week 3 certainly didn’t disappoint, with 5 of 9 selections finding their way into the end-zone, producing some nice profit. Although Sunday did carry with it a tinge of annoyance on two counts, one was the fact that Cooper Kupp, Kyle Rudolph, and Jimmy Graham all scored, all of whom we backed in Week 2, some at very big odds. Also, I was annoyed at not backing a couple of guys I shortlisted who winded up scoring, mainly Tee Higgins and Foster Moreau who were around 7/1 and 15/1 respectively. I did take solace in the fact that all of this shows my selection process is on the money, meaning we could be in for some very big weeks as the season goes on.
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Larry Fitzgerald
Best Odds: 5.00 with Sky Bet
Next Best: 4.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3.50
Comment: “It looks as if DeAndre Hopkins is a true game-time decision, even if he were to suit up then he would not doubt be covered by Donte Jackson who is one of the best young corners in the game right now. Meaning Kyler Murray will have to look the way of the wily veteran, who can still get it done down in the red-zone.”
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Football Team
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Steven Sims Jr
Best Odds: 23.00 with Bet Victor
Next Best: 17.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 10.00
Comment: “For me this is a clear pricing error, as Sims has been on the field for 70% of Washington’s offensive plays so far this season. Yes Dontrelle Inman came to the fore last week, but facing a very strong Ravens pass defence Dwayne Haskins will need to spread the ball around. Sims had 4 scores in his rookie campaign, but is yet to get off the mark in 2020.”
*Make sure you bet on Steven Sims, not Cam Sims who is also on the Redskins roster. I have checked and Steven Sims is available at 17.00 with several bookmakers.
Game: Cleveland Browns @Dallas Cowboys
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Odell Beckham Jr
Best Odds: 2.40 with Several
Next Best: 2.38 with Betfred
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.10
Comment: “The Cowboys currently have the 4th worst pass defence in the NFL, and that doesn’t look like it will improve when facing an offence that boasts OBJ, Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper. Beckham’s career scoring rate has dipped since joining the Browns, but I still see plenty of value in odds over evens given the relatively easy match-up. With his speed he could blow right past a weak Dallas safety tandem.”
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: A.J. Green
Best Odds: 2.88 with Sky Bet
Next Best: 2.80 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.30
Comment: “Surprisingly Green is the only starting Bengals receiver not to find the end-zone this season, although that isn’t through lack of trying, being targeted 28 times in 3 games. Facing a very inexperienced Jaguars secondary it’s about time the Georgia Bulldog registered his first score since 2018.”
As per usual, stake 3% of your starting bankroll onto each selection.
For those of you who prefer a points system, start with an initial betting bank of 100 points, and stake 3 points per selection.
Touchdown Profit 