As you may have seen on twitter, I have been away for a few days, meaning the write-ups are a little shorter this week, and are getting published a few days later than usual.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team – Football Team +7.5 @ 1.91 with Unibet
The Dwayne Haskins era appears to have been very short-lived under River Boat Ron, with ‘his guy’, Kyle Allen stepping in under centre. From watching Allen last season he is very much a game manager rather than a game winner, but he shouldn’t make too many mistakes and can rely on a very strong Washington defence that is allowing the 8th fewest yards in the NFL. The Rams didn’t exactly look convincing against a very poor Giants side, and faced with another road game I can’t help but think +8/7.5 is far too big of a head start. If anything I quite like the Redskins chances of getting the ‘W’.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers – Dolphins +9 @ 1.97 with Redzone
Coming off a loss to the Eagles it’s clear that the 49ers are still very much missing those key pieces on defence, and whilst they may welcome back Jimmy G this week, I still believe that the Dolphins offer a stern test. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers from Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami could have easily taken down the Seahawks, with their defence probably doing the best job so far this season in slowing down Russell Wilson. Devante Parker finally looks healthy, and will be a real handful for the 9ers beat-up secondary. Unlike Washington, I don’t see the Dolphins winning, but they certainly have the capability of keeping it close.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – Browns +1 @ 1.91 with Bet365
People are talking about the Colts defence like it’s the second coming of the 85 Bears. So far this season they have played the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, and Bears, not exactly offensive juggernauts. Unfortunately, the Browns will be without Nick Chubb who I consider to be the best pure runner in the NFL right now, but they do have a ‘back-up’ who would be a starter for pretty much every team in the NFL in Kareem Hunt. If Cleveland want to be taken seriously then these are the short of games they need to win, and will have them sat at 4-1 in the ultra competitive AFC North. Anthony Castonzo has already been ruled out of this contest, so you know Myles Garrett will be licking his chops!
Jags at Texans – Under 55 points
Chiefs at Raiders – Under 56 points
Vikings at Seahawks – Under 57 points
There’s value to be had in the Eagles (too many injuries), Jets (Darnold missing), Giants (poor record against the Cowboys), Vikings (back to back road games), and Chargers (back to back road games), but my reasoning is next to each side as to why I’ll be passing in them this week. Also, some value in the Overs in the Rams/Redskins match-up, but I do believe the Rams offence will struggle against the Washington defence, and I need to see just how Kyle Allen develops into the offence.
All selections are advised at 1 point each, with a 100 point bankroll.