Another nice week, going 4-2, which takes the season record to 14-8-1.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Steelers -3.5 @ 1.91 with Boyle Sports
No, this isn’t a typo; the Cleveland Browns are actually 4-1. Whilst they are 4-1 I’m still not convinced by Baker Mayfield. I think he’s been helped out massively by a very impressive ground game, one that will struggle this week, facing a Steelers defence that’s allowing just 64 yards a game, at 3.3 yards a carry. If they can’t establish the run then Baker will be forced to pass, and it will make the play-action very ineffective, leading to one thing, turnovers. The Steelers sit at 4-0, but have yet to really face a playoff calibre side, so need to use this as a statement game, showing everyone in the NFL that they are for real in 2020. I’d prefer to see the line at -3, but I’m still happy to take the 3.5 with Pittsburgh having beaten the Browns by 4 or more in 5 of the last 6 match-ups at Heinz Field.
Falcons at Vikings – Under 55.5 points
Browns at Steelers – Under 51 points
Lions at Jaguars – Under 54.5 points
Again, value to be had in the Jags, Falcons, and Bears, but I have several question marks over the Jaguars defence, the Falcons organisation in general, and the return of CMC may just take the Panthers to the next level. Also, plenty of value to be had in the Unders between the Bengals and Colts, however, Joe Burrow is becoming more comfortable in the offence, and may take the total over 50.
Bookies have yet to price the Broncos/Patriots, Titans/Texans, and Chiefs/Bills matchups, so I may have some additional selections later in the week.
All selections are advised at 1 point each, with a 100 point bankroll.