If one game ever summed up our season so far, it was Thursday night. Calvin Ridley goes down with an ankle injury, after Matt Ryan missed him when he was wide-open in the back of the end-zone, only for Ryan to run one in a few plays later after mentioning Matty Ice in my write-up. Anyway, onwards and upwards.
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Marvin Jones
Best Odds: 3.50 with Several
Next Best: 3.25 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.88
Comment: “I would imagine that Xavier Rhodes will travel with Kenny Golladay, leaving Jones matched up one on one with Kenny Moore. Jones has had a very productive career, scoring 43 times in 102 starts. It’s been a slow start to the season for Jones, but with Gollday back in the line-up it affords him pretty much single coverage all game long.”
Game: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Kyle Rudolph
Best Odds: 7.00 with SpreadEx
Next Best: 6.50 with Unibet
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 4.33
Comment: “This is a pure value selection. The former Notre Dame product has scored 48 times in 134 career starts, making odds of 6/1 far too big to pass up. Yes, he may be in the twilight of career, but he’s still a threat in the red-zone, and is on the field for 70% of the Vikings snaps.”
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Chase Claypool
Best Odds: 4.25 with Unibet
Next Best: 3.50 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3.00
Comment: “The rookie was very much overshadowed by Diontae Johnson last weekend, and will be looking to bounce back in what is a crucial AFC North match-up. Even despite cutting Earl Thomas the Ravens secondary has been rather stingy this season, but Claypool should at least get a couple of chances to go and get some jump balls in the back of the end-zone or steaming downfield.”
Game: Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: A.J. Brown
Best Odds: 2.25 with Sky Bet
Next Best: 2.10 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.91
Comment: “The second year pro has come back from his knee injury with a bang, and that doesn’t look like slowing down against a Bengals secondary that has allowed 15 touchdowns already this season. Brown has averaged 8 targets a game this season, so should get plenty of opportunities.”
Game: Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: A.J. Green
Best Odds: 3.60 with Several
Next Best: 3.10 with Unibet
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.75
Comment: “Over the past 2 weeks Green has been targeted 24 times, hauling in 15 of them, and despite the fact that he hasn’t found the end-zone yet this season, it’s only a matter of time. The Titans defence has actually been pretty poor so far this season, allowing 15 scores and 272 yards a game. Despite losing last weekend, Joe Burrow very much looks the real deal, and with Joe Mixon ruled out, it should be pass, pass, pass.”
Game: Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Kick-Off: 21:05 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Melvin Gordon
Best Odds: 2.20 with Several
Next Best: 2.15 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.00
Comment: “If Gordon was ever going to be ‘up’ for a game, it’s this one. He was very public about the disappointment he felt with the Chargers not offering him a new deal, and will be out to prove a point. Gordon has already found the end-zone 5 times this season, and has a career scoring rate of 72.2%.”
Game: New Orleans @ Chicago Bears
Kick-Off: 21:25 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Cole Kmet
Best Odds: 12.00 with Unibet
Next Best: 11.00 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 6.50
Comment: “The Bears offence is still pretty woeful, despite making the change at Quarterback. Some of the Bears brass wants Kmet to see more playing time, which seems to be happening, with a slight uptick in offensive snaps over the past few weeks. The Saints defence has allowed the 2nd most passing touchdowns so far this season, and if Kmet were to find the end-zone today I don’t think you’ll be seeing double digit odds again.”
I see some value in Kirk Cousins and Drew Lock, but after Lock scored last weekend it seems unlikely he would do so again 2 weeks in a row, and Cousins scoring rate has dropped significantly since joining the Vikings. Kenny Golladay and rookie Justin Jefferson also look good, but I prefer the odds of Marvin Jones, and I’m not sure if Jefferson will be matched with Jaire Alexander who is playing at an All-Pro level right now.
As per usual, stake 3% of your starting bankroll onto each selection.
For those of you who prefer a points system, start with an initial betting bank of 100 points, and stake 3 points per selection.
Touchdown Profit 