After a few ‘iffy’ weeks it was nice to get back on track in Week 8, with Marvin Jones, Chase Claypool, A.J. Brown, and Mike Evans all finding the end-zone pushing us back into to profit for the season. Although, I still haven’t quite got over that Matt Ryan touchdown on Thursday night!
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Lamar Jackson
Best Odds: 2.75 with Several
Next Best: 2.65 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.30
Comment: “After an MVP season in 2019, there is some serious questions being asked of Lamar Jackson in 2020, following a tough loss to the Steelers last week a few of the Ravens took to social media to air their thoughts, which is never a great sign. Whilst Jackson has only rushed for 2 scores so far this season, I firmly believe that a big game is just round the corner. The Colts offer a stern test, but odds approaching 2/1 are too big for a guy that can score from anywhere on the field.”
Game: Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Christian McCaffrey
Best Odds: 1.87 with Several
Next Best: 1.80 with Sky Bet
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.57
Comment: “Mike Davis has been more than adequate since CMC went down, but let’s face it, he isn’t anywhere the threat that McCaffrey is, in fact, not many are. With a scoring rate of 86%, he faces a Chiefs rush defence that is allowing 4.8 yards a carry, and nearly 150 yards a game. If he’s back to full health, he’ll be in the end-zone at some point on Sunday.”
Game: Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: LeVeon Bell
Best Odds: 3.00 with Sky Bet
Next Best: 2.75 with Betway
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.50
Comment: “After a few weeks acclimatising to the Chiefs offence, I feel like Bell is due for a breakout game. Reid said that he wanted to bring Bell in because Clyde Edwards-Helaire wasn’t getting it done in short yardage situations. This to me says that Bell could be in-line for some goal-line work, and at 2/1 I’m willing to take the chance.”
Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Kick-Off: 21:05 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Josh Jacobs
Best Odds: 1.91 with Sky Bet
Next Best: 1.73 with Betfred
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.62
Comment: “Jacobs hasn’t quite looked the force he was last season, with his yards per carry dropping from 4.8 in his rookie year, down to 3.6. The offensive line has suffered some injuries, which could explain part of the drop-off, and he’s still one the closest things you get to an every down back in the NFL these days. The Chargers are allowing 4.7 yards a carry, and with the offence getting healthier, Jacobs will be looking to get back on track.”
Game: Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Kick-Off: 21:25 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: DeAndre Hopkins
Best Odds: 2.30 with Unibet
Next Best: 2.10 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.00
Comment: “The Dolphins pass defence has been mightily impressive this season, but ‘Nuk’ is a different beast, and already has some nice chemistry with Kyler Murray hauling in 57 catches in 7 games, currently leading the NFL in receiving yards, despite already having had their bye week. With 10 targets a game, Hopkins will be given plenty of chances to add to his 3 scores so far this season.”
Game: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kick-Off: 01:20 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Michael Thomas
Best Odds: 2.87 with Paddy Power
Next Best: 2.75 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 2.20
Comment: “After 8 weeks out, Thomas needs to reclaim his self-proclaimed title as the best receiver in the NFL, and boy has Drew Brees missed his main target. Thomas loves playing against Tampa, averaging nearly 100 yards a game, with 6 scores in 8 match-ups. You won’t see odds much over evens again this season if the reigning offensive player of the year finds the end-zone tomorrow.”
Only guys I backed off this week were Daniel Jones, who is rushing a lot this season, without actually running one in (so far), also Raiders back-up tight-ends Foster Moreau and Jason Witten, both of whom can be backed at 15/1, the issue I have is not knowing which one to back, an backing both would eat into the bankroll. Tony Pollard was available at 10/1 with Bet365, but that didn’t last long.
As per usual, stake 3% of your starting bankroll onto each selection.
For those of you who prefer a points system, start with an initial betting bank of 100 points, and stake 3 points per selection.
Touchdown Profit 