Spreads
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – Steelers +6.5 @ 1.91 with Several (back down to +5.5)
I am really not on this Bills hype train. Granted they won the AFC East for the first time in a million years but the offense is very much one-dimensional right now and relies on Josh Allen to make a lot of plays. The defence has slowly taken some steps backwards in recent seasons and looks shy of any real pass rush, which is exactly what Ben Roethlisberger needs to be successful, time in the pocket. I don’t have a great deal of faith in the Steelers o-line, but Najee Harris should at least keep the defence honest and keep either Chase Claypool or Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster in single coverage. The strength of the Steelers as it has forever been is the linebackers, as 2nd year stand-out Alex Highsmith looks to make an impact, with former pro-bowler Melvin Ingram a terrific situational pass-rusher. Pittsburgh have lost by 8 points or more only 5 times in their last 16 road games.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams – Bears +8 @ 1.91 with Sky Bet (back down to +7)
Is Andy Dalton an upgrade on Mitchell Trubisky? To be honest, probably. His best years are behind him but he does join a side that has potentially a top 5/10 defence, meaning the red-rifle won’t need to post 30+ points a game. If they can get David Montgomery going on the ground and control the clock they should be able to keep this game close. As for the Rams it very much looks like they’re putting all their eggs into Matthew Stafford’s basket. Whilst Aaron Donald may well be on his way to becoming the greatest defensive tackle of all-time he really is the only bright spot in that front 7. Da Bears have an innate ability to keep games close, only losing 6 of their last 16 by 8 points or more.
Plenty of value to be had in the New York Jets and Houston Texans, but with serious questions under centre I’m happy to leave them well alone.
Totals
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans – Under 52.5 points @ 1.91 with Several (back down to 52)
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams – Under 47.5 points @ 1.91 with Paddy Power (back down to 45.5)
Solid value in the overs between the Packers and Saints, but with Drew Brees now on the set of NBC I’d like to see how the offence clicks. Also, the overs between the 49ers and Lions looks tasty, but QB concerns hold me back.
All selections are advised at 1 point each, with a 100 point bankroll.
Touchdown Profit 