Just the one selection in Week 18, which didn’t land as the Steelers and Ravens both turned the ball over multiple times in scoring positions. 41-28-1 on the season as we head for playoff football!
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals – Raiders +5.5 @ 1.95 with Boyle Sports (back down to +4.5)
Earlier on I had Good Morning Football on my tele, and all I heard from several ‘experts’ was how much the Raiders are going to struggle because of their poor road form…….. Ummm, not to rain on anyone’s parade but the Raiders in fact have one of the best road records in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, sitting at 11-5. Their road record is actually better than the Bengals home record. As for the matchups I’ll be the first to admit that Cincinnati has some serious weapons on offence, but the one thing that Las Vegas can do is get to the quarterback with Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue coming off the edge, with the right side of the Bengals offensive line far from stellar. I truly believe that Joe Burrow is the next great QB, but the Raiders have the potential to keep this game very close, with a field goal deciding it.
Yes, the Bucs have Tom Brady under centre who’s had yet another incredible year, but they certainly aren’t the team that won the Superbowl last season, especially on offence, and despite bringing back all their starters from a season ago the defence looks a step off, mainly against the run giving up 4.3 yards a carry. That isn’t great when they face the NFL’s number one rush offence lead by an ever-improving Jalen Hurts. He isn’t going to defeat Tampa with his arm alone, but the scrambling ability can get him out of trouble. Darius Slay has arguably been the best cover corners in the NFL this season and will have a chance to prove it as I’m sure he’ll follow Mike Evans all over the field. The Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 road games and granted they probably won’t do enough to win; they can at least keep it close and control the clock.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs – Steelers +13 @ 1.91 with Smarkets Sportsbook (back down to +11)
I didn’t think I’d ever see a day where the Steelers were a double-digit underdog in the wildcard round, but here we are. I think most of that is an overreaction from the defeat they suffered at the hands of the Chiefs a few weeks ago, but after sneaking into the play-offs you know they’ll have a better game plan in place this time around. Kansas City managed to defeat the Broncos on Saturday, but Denver did expose some weaknesses on the defence, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Pittsburgh can not afford to get in a shootout with the Chiefs, but if they can establish a ground game and then get some pass rush on Mahomes with newly crowned sack king T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward, then who knows. Either way I think +13 is a crazy line, and just how healthy is Tyreek Hill?!
Big value in the Cardinals and unders in that fixture, but the head-to-head record doesn’t make for pretty reading. Some value also in the overs between the Raiders and Bengals, but again the previous matchups point the other way.
All selections are advised at 1 point each, with a 100 point bankroll.