A little later than advertised, but here I go with my Touchdown Profit season review for the 2021/22 NFL season. After finishing the previous season with a record of 45-27-2 and a return on investment of 19.35%. I know a few people were sceptical as to whether those sorts of number could be repeated, especially in markets as sharp (tough) as these. So, let’s see how it played out…….
Weeks 1 to 4
We started the season with a winner on opening night as the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers took down the Dallas Cowboys, albeit in a very close game with us being on the Cowboys at +8.5 points. This was followed up by another 2 winners in the early Sunday games with unders landing between the Cardinals and Titans, with the Steelers not just covering the spread but defeating the Bills. Week 1 did then end in disappointment as the Bears got blown out by the Rams, although the unders would have come in if it wasn’t for a garbage time touchdown. But still, a 3-2 start to the season.
Week 2 began with another win as the Giants stayed within touching distance of the Redskins, I’m sorry, Football Team, I mean, Commanders. Sunday night seen us go 3-2 with the Vikings and Titans covering the spread, and 49ers/Eagles finishing under 50 points. 4-2 for the week, and now 7-4 on the season.
No Thursday night selection for Week 3, but that didn’t stop us making profit going 3-1 on the Sunday with the unders between the Bucs/Rams the only selection to hold back from what would become a VERY elusive ‘clean sweep’. Now sitting at 10-5 on the season we were off to a great start.
Unfortunately, Week 4 would see our first losing week as we went 2-4. There was no hiding, it was just a flat-out bad week. But still, through the first quarter (ish) of the season we were 12-9 and in solid profit.
Weeks 5 to 8
Weeks 5 and 6 were pretty quiet, with just 3 selections over the 2 weeks, this is where you’ll note that I don’t force any selections. I follow the same processes which can sometimes lead to 6/7 selections a week, with others having just one, or sometimes none. That didn’t affect profit though, as we went 2-0-1 across those selections with unders landing between the Packers/Bengals and Rams/Seahawks. The Cardinals/Browns hit bang on the 51-point mark giving us the first ‘push’ (void bet) of the season.
Normal service was resumed in Week 7 with 4 selections leading to a 3-1 record. The Commanders couldn’t keep pace with the Packers and again held us back from the clean sweep. The Giants and 49ers did get the business done without too much stress. This meant we were at 17-10-1 through 7 weeks of NFL action.
Week 8 was a stalemate between us and the bookies going 2-2. I was emailed by one guy and called ‘clueless’ for backing the Giants at +10 away to the Chiefs, who proceeded to lose by just 3 points. I’ll say no more. 19-12-1 approaching the halfway point of the season.
Weeks 9 to 12
Not to seem like a broken record, but another 3-1 Sunday in Week 9 as our chances of the clean sweep were scuppered by the overs not landing between the Jags and Bills, made even more annoying that in the write-up for the week I mentioned how I hard time deciding between the overs or Jags point spread, which landed with ease. Any who, I couldn’t really complain with a 22-13-1 record.
Week 10 was a busy one with 5 selections in total, and a very profitable one with a 4-1 record. This time round it was the turn of the Steelers/Lions to hold us back from the sweep, whilst we could actually feel very hard done by this time as my selection was made when the Steelers had Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, who was then struck down by covid leading to Mason Rudolph being named the starter. At this point I did email everyone to say not to place the bet if they hadn’t done so yet, but I still recorded the selection as a loss. 26-14-1 through Week 10, fantastic.
Just the 3 selections in Week 11, but another profitable week going 2-1. The Pats/Falcons unders landed comfortably, as it did with the Cowboys and Chiefs. However, that wasn’t the case for the Steelers and Chargers on Monday night combining for just the 78 points! With nearly three-quarters of the season over and done with we were sat at 28-15-1.
Weeks 12 to 18
As we entered the latter part of the season, we went 3-2 during Week 12, and repeated that record in Week 13. I know that 3-2 doesn’t sound like much, but in these competitive markets that is more than adequate, especially long-term when you consider that after four weeks that would have you sat at 12-8.
After 5 straight profitable weeks we were brought back down to earth in Week 14 and subsequently over the next month going 1-2, 1-3 and 2-2 through Week 16. Whilst that was frustrating it was to really be expected with R.O.I sat at well over 20% at this point. A number that wasn’t sustainable.
Week 17 saw a solid bounce back as the 3-1 took us to 41-27-1 with just one week remaining in the regular season. The only losing selection for the week was the overs between the Browns/Steelers which missed out by half a point!
I’ve never been a lover of the final week in regular season from a betting perspective as you can never be sure just how motivated some teams are which is why I made just the one solitary selections between the Steelers and Ravens who were both in the play-off hunt. But with both offences spluttering we did end the season on a loser. That couldn’t detract from what had a brilliant regular season as we finished with a record of 41-28-1.
For as brilliant as the regular season was, we were swiftly brough back down to earth on wildcard weekend as Raiders, Eagles, and Steelers all failed to cover the spread on the road. Do I regret those selections? Absolutely not. The value was massive in all 3 underdogs with the Raiders and Eagles have multiple opportunities to cover 9.5 and 5.5 points respectively.
What’s the old saying, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish? Well, after going 0-3 over wildcard weekend we backed that up with 5 straight winners to end the season. 1-0 in the divisional round, 3-0 in the conference championships, and finishing off with a winner in Super Bowl 56 as under 48.5 points landed without too much stress.
That meant a record of 46-31-1 for the 2021/22 NFL Season with a Return on Investment of 14.47%. Some numbers that I was extremely happy with and proved to the doubters that 2020/21 was certainly no ‘fluke’. For the past two seasons we now have a record of 91-58-3 with an R.O.I of 16.85%, not too shabby.
Next up my attention switches to the NFL Draft this upcoming Thursday where you can sometimes find a couple of gems in terms of over/under draft position(s), etc. If I find any selections, they will be posted as close as possible to the commencement of the draft as a lot can change in a very short space of time.
Since the end of the season, I have received quite a few messages, emails, etc, regarding what is next for Touchdown Profit and the 2022/23 season. Well, all shall be revealed in the next week as we begin to ramp up for the new season.