Now, I’m sure you’ve heard it all before. “You’ll never see a poor bookie”, “Gambling is a mugs game”, “The only one that wins is the bookie”, etc, etc. And I must admit, in the main most of those sayings are true, but that’s not to say that EVERYONE loses. Some of us find a way of beating the bookies consistently, year after year.
Is it easy to do? Of course not, but nothing worth having is ever easy. It takes research, calculations, patience, and above all else the mindset that allows you to stick to your methods throughout the inevitable ups and downs.
Now it’s very easy to say these things, but lets prove it.
Below you will see a breakdown of my results solely in the “anytime touchdown scorer” market, over the last 3 NFL seasons. These results are based upon 10 points per selection, regardless of odds.
That’s correct, in 3 seasons, at 10 points per selection you would have made nearly 800 points, with a Return On Investment at 22%. Now, given that currently the best interest rate you could access from a bank would be around 1-2% I’d say that’s pretty good going.
Yes, you’re right, anyone could quickly put those numbers together on a spreadsheet, so let’s begin to break those results down a little further, by looking at each season individually.
First off, let’s look how the results stack up by position.
As you can see, quarterback and wide-receiver are far and away the most profitable positions, although running back was profitable for 2 of the 3 seasons, with tight-end the only position that has really struggled to make any consistent profit.
Next, let’s take a look at how the selections have fared by odds.
It would be easy to dismiss all selections under odds of 5.00, but as you can see, selections between 1.50 to 3.99 have been very profitable, especially odds under evens. There does however seem to be a huge disparity when it comes to any selections with odds between 4.00 to 4.99.