Have the Packers finally realised that sooner or later they will be without Aaron Rodgers, as they finally opened the chequebook, and some fairly marquee free agents in Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Adrian Amos to help improve a fairly mediocre defence. As for the offence, it’s pretty much as you were, with Rodgers expected to make the most of a relatively nameless group of receivers (Davante Adams not included). At running back, Aaron Jones looks a real talent however, injury shortened his season.
Now, speaking of Rodgers, he has scored 27 times in his illoustrious career, and used to offer a little value going into most games, but that TD rate has slowed down somewhat in recent seasons as he looks to protect himself a little more. If I see odds over 14/1 I may get tempted, but given his reputation for running amongst bookmakers I doubt to I will see those sort of numbers.
Aaron Jones could be bit of an anytime scorer darling if he comes back to full health. Having scored 9 times in 12 starts last season you may see fairly sizeable odds on the 3rd year running-back. So I will be keeping a close eye on him.
Now Rodgers threw 25 touchdowns last season, 13 on which went to Davante Adams, that’s over 50% which is insane. The problem with that is that it means no other receiver on the Packers roster has any value, with Valdes-Scantling and Allison both grabbing 2 scores on the season. As for Adams, any time you see odds over evens he might be worth pulling the trigger. In his last 45 starts, he has scored 35 times! That’s a percentage of 77%!
Unfortunately Jimmy Graham was one of the few let-downs in terms of profit last season, having scored at a fairly consistent rate in his career, he was only able to find the end-zone on 2 occasions, despite be targeted 89 times. I feel he may have a better second season at Lambeau, but it’s more a case of wait and see.
Touchdown Profit 