A bit of a ho hum Week 4. Very limited selections due to lack of value, with OBJ finding the end-zone nice and early, but that’s where the success ended, with A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald both underwhelming.
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: DeAndre Hopkins
Best Odds: 2.10 with Several
Next Best: 2.05 with Unibet
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.91
Comment: “It hasn’t taken long for ‘Nuk’ to feel at home in Arizona, and I’m sure he has a smirk on his face about what has been going on in Houston. He is currently the 3rd most targeted receiver in the NFL, and tied 1st in touches inside the red-zone. Facing a Jets defence that has a huge weakness at corner and will struggle to keep Hopkins under-control, and out of the end-zone.”
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Larry Fitzgerald
Best Odds: 4.75 with Unibet
Next Best: 4.50 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 3.50
Comment: “I am giving Fitz another shot. The entire offence seemed to struggle against the Panthers last weekend, but yet the 17 year veteran has still been on the field for over 80% of the Cardinals offensive snaps. Kliff Kingsbury loves a wide-receiver screen down in the red-zone, and with the aforementioned Nuk getting all the attention it will always leave Fitz in a 1 on 1 match-up. Arizona needs to get their season back on track, and there’s no better opponent than the beat up New York Jets.”
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Kick-Off: 18:00 GMT
Market: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Selection: Jonathan Taylor
Best Odds: 1.91 with Will Hill
Next Best: 1.90 with Several
Lowest Acceptable Odds: 1.77
Comment: “After losing Marlon Mack on opening weekend, Taylor has assumed the role as lead back for the Colts, which brings with it a lot of goal-line work, where the rookie is currently 5th in the NFL with 18 touches inside the red-zone. The Browns run defence has been fairly stout so far this season, but they will be without Larry Ogunjobi for this contest, who is a big presence in the middle of that very talented front 4. Phillip Rivers looks far from convincing, so I would put my faith in Taylor down in the red-zone.”
Annoyingly very little value around again this week, although, I do see a great deal of value in Harrison Bryant of the Cleveland Browns, but with David Njoku returning from IR it’s tough to tell what snap share he’ll see.
I may have a selection in the Titans/Bills match-up, but the game has yet to be priced.
As per usual, stake 3% of your starting bankroll onto each selection.
For those of you who prefer a points system, start with an initial betting bank of 100 points, and stake 3 points per selection.
Touchdown Profit 